The eastern Midwest is grappling with rapidly worsening drought, as record-setting dryness continues into September, putting additional pressure on row crop yields, livestock, and river transportation systems.

According to commentary from the U.S. Drought Monitor dated September 2, a 30-day rainfall deficit of 2 to 4+ inches has led to widespread drought degradation across the region. The Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC) reported historic dry conditions at several stations:

Cincinnati Airport, Ohio: -2.71 inches, driest on record

Columbus Airport, Ohio: -3.1 inches, driest on record

Springfield, Illinois: -3.21 inches, second driest on record

Springfield Airport, Missouri: -3.45 inches, driest on record

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) released a special Midwest drought bulletin outlining the scope of degradation. It confirms the fast expansion of Abnormally Dry (D0) to Severe Drought (D2) conditions across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and parts of Michigan.

Central Michigan has now been in Moderate to Severe Drought for nearly a year, raising alarms over the loterm implications for agricultural production.

Declining soil moisture levels and low streamflows are causing stress not only for crops but also for livestock operations. Perhaps more critically, water levels on the Ohio River and Lower Mississippi are dropping, disrupting barge movement and supply chain logistics at a crucial time in the agricultural calendar.

"Numerous agricultural impact reports" were filed in late August from southern Missouri, north-central Kentucky, and southern Ohio, noting withering pasture conditions, reduced forage availability, and crop damage.

The NIDIS bulletin forecasts persistent drought through September in southeastern Missouri, southern and central Illinois, and Michigan, with new drought development expected across Indiana and Ohio.

Short-term rainfall forecasts remain grim:

St. Louis, MO: 0.00 inches

Peoria, IL: 0.18 inches

Springfield, IL: 0.08 inches

Indianapolis, IN: 0.04 inches

Cincinnati, OH: 0.00 inches

Paducah, KY: 0.03 inches

Lansing, MI: 0.05 inches

These projections, current as of September 8, reflect minimal moisture input, compounding the threat to yields.

The timing of this dryness is especially concerning. September is a critical month for the final development stages of corn and soybeans. A similar late-season drought in 2024 caused USDA to revise final yields downward, with corn yields ending 4 bushels per acre (bpa) lower and soybeans 2.5 bpa below August estimates.

Producers and agronomists are watching this year's harvest closely, as the yield drag risk rises with each dry, hot day.