Grain shippers and U.S. farmers are once again facing logistical headaches as Mississippi and Ohio River levels dip below critical thresholds, forcing lighter barge loads, restricted vessel widths, and rising freight costs just as the 2025 harvest reaches full swing.

According to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey, recent rains in the Mid-South offered brief relief, but water levels at Cairo, Illinois, and Memphis, Tennessee, remain dangerously low, with further declines expected. This follows a now-familiar pattern: 2022, 2023, and 2024 harvests were similarly disrupted by shallow water conditions on the nation's key grain highway.

"We've had low water levels for four years in a row now," said Mike Seyfert, president and CEO of the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA). "It certainly doesn't make things easier."

Ohio River Drought Deepens the Crisis

The Ohio River normally supplies 50% of the Mississippi's flow, but last week it contributed just 8%, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System. By contrast, the Upper Mississippi and Missouri Rivers provided 57%, nearly double their typical share.

The U.S. Coast Guard has imposed strict barge-loading limits:

Southbound vessels (Cairo to Caruthersville, MO): no more than 10'6" draft, six barges wide

Northbound vessels: 9'6" draft, also max six barges wide

According to NGFA, shippers report up to 20% loss in capacity due to these restrictions.

Rising Freight Costs Squeeze Grain Elevators and Farmers

Barge freight rates between Cairo and Memphis jumped to $19.53 per ton on Sept. 23, a 31% increase from a month earlier, though still 14% below 2024 rates, per the latest USDA Grain Transportation Report.

"Farmers are storing grain in every single nook and cranny," said Gary Williams, director of the Upper Mississippi Waterway Association.

Between early August and mid-September, barged grain movement fell 79% - from 2.4 million to just 502,000 short tons, according to Daniel Munch, economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation:

Soybeans: 89%

Corn: 72%

Wheat: 55%

"When barges can't sink as far or tow as many, volume drops but costs don't," said Munch. "Farmers pay for that through lower grain prices."

Row Crop Farmers Face More Headwinds Despite Record Corn Crop

While the USDA projects a record 16.7 billion bushels of corn in 2025, market conditions remain tough. China has yet to place a single soybean order this cycle, and commodity prices remain under pressure.

"With the national farm crisis in grains and row crops, this is just another problem our producers don't need," said Mississippi Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson. "But it seems like we can't catch a break."