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Real Christmas Tree Outlook Strong for 2025 Holiday Season

Prices steady and supply solid: U.S. growers ready for holiday demand, despite ag sector challenges

AgroLatam USA

Despite rising production costs in other sectors, 84% of Christmas tree growers said they do not plan to increase wholesale prices this year. Some may even lower them. Moreover, 79% expect to sell as many or more trees than last year, with 32% forecasting higher sales than in 2024.

"Growers are prepared, supply is strong, and most are holding wholesale prices steady this year," said Marsha Gray, Executive Director of the Real Christmas Tree Board. "This reflects the consistency of the real Christmas tree industry and the commitment of growers to ensuring that there's a real Christmas tree for everyone who wants one."

Unlike misconceptions about deforestation, Christmas trees are a sustainable crop, grown on over 350,000 acres of U.S. farmland. These trees are cultivated like any row crop, with farmers replanting 1 to 3 saplings for every tree harvested. Species include Fraser fir, Douglas fir, Scotch pine, balsam fir, and blue spruce, among others.

Retail pricing remains in the hands of sellers, but last year's consumer survey found that 90% of buyers felt their real tree purchase was worth the cost. The trees are readily available at choose-and-cut farms, big box stores, garden centers, and seasonal lots across the U.S.

During the 2024 season, 91% of consumers reported no trouble finding a place to buy a tree, and 89% found their desired tree on the first visit. Accessibility and supply were not concerns, a trend that looks to continue this year.

As a bonus for North American trade, Canadian-grown real Christmas trees are tariff-free under the USMCA, supporting cross-border supply without price distortions.

For U.S. agriculture, real Christmas trees represent a niche but meaningful part of the holiday economy, supporting local jobs and showcasing sustainable land management. As climate conditions and market pressures shift many ag sectors, tree growers appear to have struck a balance-stable prices, solid yield expectations, and consistent consumer demand.

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