South America has largely returned to near-normal weather patterns, a marked improvement from the drought-dominated years of 2020-2023. In Argentina, soil moisture was rated favorably approaching mid-September, and early spring conditions appear ideal.

In Argentina's wheat and barley zones, especially in Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and eastern Córdoba, planting season conditions were good. Although western provinces such as Córdoba, San Luis, La Pampa, and western Santa Fe saw drying during the mid and late winter, the dryness was not as severe as in recent years. Thanks to late-August rains, moisture improved, helping soils take in water deeply. This supports better tillering, rooting, and spring growth.

In the west, concern remains in some pockets, particularly in Cordoba and La Pampa, where poor emergence and establishment affected some early-planted crops. However, conditions remain significantly better than in previous drought seasons.

Brazil is exhibiting a similar weather dynamic. The southern region, including Rio Grande do Sul, southern Paraná, and southern Paraguay, has maintained relatively good soil moisture. Meanwhile, center-west and center-south regions, which usually dry in early September, are facing seasonal dryness.

Pre-monsoonal showers expected in late September should help regenerate these soils. Last year, early rainfall was too weak to counter evaporation, causing planting delays that cascaded through soybean harvesting and Safrinha corn and cotton planting. This season, the outlook is better. With normal to above-normal rainfall forecast for central Brazil later this month, early soybean planting is expected to move at a good pace.

Brazilian farmers traditionally avoid soybean planting before September 15, due to insurance restrictions, but begin planting soon after, depending on rainfall. The start of the monsoon season, typically in late October, remains critical for crop establishment. Early rainfall, while less consistent, is now forecast to be sufficient in many areas.

Winter wheat in southern Brazil should yield well this year, particularly with reduced frost risk. Similarly, early corn and rice planting in southern regions is expected to proceed efficiently, supported by favorable conditions.

A key uncertainty is the potential development of La Niña. While meteorological models suggest it may emerge later this year, it is not expected to impact South America significantly. Historically, La Niña must be active by August to disrupt pre-monsoonal rainfall. This year, no such development has occurred.

Without La Niña influence, timely pre-monsoonal showers should aid planting across Brazil's center-west and center-south. Rainfall may be near to above normal in these areas in September and October. Meanwhile, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Paraguay may see slightly drier conditions, but not drought-level dryness. These areas are still expected to receive timely rainfall for planting and early development.

In the event La Niña develops later, it could still influence weather in November. Historically, late-arriving La Niña events tend to enhance rainfall in central and southern Brazil while slightly reducing it in far eastern Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul. However, the weak intensity predicted suggests minimal impact on overall crop performance.

Crop production prospects are strong heading into the 2025-26 season. Most indicators point to favorable planting, emergence, and early development for coarse grains and oilseeds, particularly soybeans, corn, wheat, and barley. Important export crops like rice, citrus, sugar cane, and coffee are also expected to benefit from these early-season conditions.