Soybeans Hold Firm on Strong NOPA Crush; Corn Gains While Wheat Slips
Better-than-expected soybean processing data lifts futures, while corn finds support on export demand. Wheat ends in the red amid global competition.
U.S. grain markets delivered a mixed session midweek, with soybean futures buoyed by a bullish NOPA report, corn edging higher on export optimism, and wheat prices sliding on continued pressure from global competition.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a record September crush of 197.863 million bushels, surpassing all trade expectations and marking an 11.6% increase over the same month in 2024. This data triggered technical buying and kept soybeans in positive territory, despite persistent uncertainty in U.S.-China trade relations.
Soybean futures closed steady to slightly higher, with November and January contracts unchanged at $10.0650 and $10.2425 respectively. Soymeal and soyoil also gained around 0.5%, while export sales estimates for the week through October 9 range between 18.4 and 51.4 million bushels.
Corn futures posted moderate gains on Wednesday, with December contracts climbing nearly 1%.
Still, market headwinds remain. China has abstained from purchasing U.S. soybeans since May, with President Trump labeling this a "hostile economic act". The former $12.8 billion market remains effectively frozen, and Trump criticized soyoil imports, claiming the U.S. should be "self-sufficient in cooking oil."
Soybean futures held firm after a choppy session, finishing steady to slightly higher, with November contracts unchanged from Tuesday.
Corn prices firmed after overnight losses, supported by technical buying and export demand. December futures rose by 3.75 cents to $4.1675, with March contracts up 3 cents to $4.3225. Weekly corn export sales are estimated between 35.4 and 78.7 million bushels, reinforcing bullish momentum.
Globally, Brazil's ANEC raised its October corn export forecast to 254.3 million bushels, and CONAB upped its 2025-26 production outlook to 5.46 billion bushels. International tenders added fuel, with South Korea and Taiwan purchasing U.S. and optional-origin corn for late-year delivery.
Chicago SRW wheat extended its losses, with December futures slipping another 0.3% on Wednesday.
Wheat prices failed to keep pace, with December Chicago SRW futures slipping 1.5 cents to $4.9875 and Kansas City HRW easing slightly. Analysts pegged export sales between 11.0 and 23.9 million bushels. The European Union continues to struggle, with a 22.6% year-over-year drop in wheat exports amid stiff Black Sea competition.
Weather remains a wildcard. NOAA forecasts show 1" or more rainfall across Missouri and Illinois through Sunday, but drier, warmer conditions returning from October 22-28, potentially accelerating harvest pace.
And in a nod to agricultural resilience, Farm Aid celebrated its 40th anniversary, raising more than $85 million to support family farmers since its inception. Artists like Neil Young and Margo Price joined in, reinforcing the ongoing cultural and economic importance of the American farm.