U.S. soybean markets are navigating uncertain geopolitical waters with remarkable resilience. As China-the largest buyer of American soybeans-remains silent on new-crop purchases, November soybean futures still managed to gain 4 cents, closing at $10.3475, with January futures adding 1.5 cents to $10.50.

While the soy complex was mixed-with soymeal gaining over 1% and soyoil slipping more than 1%-traders are showing confidence in steady domestic demand and emerging global markets. According to Jason Meyer, hedging strategist at AgMarket.net, strong crush margins, limited farmer selling, and positive basis trends are propping up prices in the absence of Chinese activity.

North Africa has emerged as a promising export region, as the U.S. Soybean Export Council looks beyond traditional buyers to expand market access. Executive editor Pam Caraway notes that these efforts are helping maintain sales volume and support futures even without China in the market.

President Donald Trump's trade rhetoric has added volatility. His threat to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 155% in November and a possible cancellation of upcoming trade talks with President Xi Jinping are raising tensions. These developments are making some traders nervous, especially amid broader economic anxieties. On Wall Street, the Dow dropped 359 points to 46,564 Wednesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, Brazil's ANEC expects October soybean exports to hit 269.8 million bushels, slightly above last week's projection. China continues to dominate that demand, accounting for up to 70% of Brazil's exports. Despite their silence on U.S. purchases, their needs haven't gone away.

Back home, ethanol production climbed to 1.112 million barrels per day last week-the highest since last November-giving further support to corn. December corn futures rose 3.25 cents to $4.23, with March up 2 cents to $4.3575, as technical buying and optimism over demand played a role.

In other developments, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the reopening of FSA offices nationwide, releasing over $3 billion in delayed farm assistance. This move is expected to ease some liquidity strain for producers, particularly as machinery financing and land loan interest rates remain in flux ahead of the next Federal Reserve rate decision.

The wheat market also found upside. December Chicago SRW and KC HRW both added 3.5 cents, supported by technical buying and ongoing export interest from Algeria, which tendered for 1.8 million bushels. Meanwhile, Ukraine's winter wheat planting has reached 74% completion, and Russia's wheat production estimates have climbed to 3.23 billion bushels, confirming its dominance in global wheat exports.

Despite the lack of movement from China, soybean traders are finding support in every corner-from domestic processing to emerging markets. Whether this can hold if tariffs escalate or trade talks fail remains the key question as we head into the close of October.