According to the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, soybean losses for 2025 are projected at nearly $110 million. Executive Director of the Tennessee Soybean Promotion Council, Stefan Maupin, described the current economic climate as a "desperate situation" where none of the major row crops are turning a profit-not even breaking even.

Severe spring floods and a scorching summer have devastated yields across West and Middle Tennessee. Fields that typically yield over 50 bushels per acre are now barely producing 30, and many farmers report significant replanting after April storms dumped more than a foot of rain in a matter of days. The USDA's national projection of 53.5 bushels per acre has been widely disputed in Tennessee, where the average from 2014 to 2024 was just 47.4. Some producers are reporting figures well below even that average.

The economic toll of these events is compounded by inflationary input costs and a collapse in export demand. China, which previously accounted for more than $489 million in Tennessee's soybean exports, has withdrawn from the market in response to tariffs imposed under the Trump administration. The result: a price more than $1 below the break-even point of $11.72 per bushel, and estimated losses of $84 per acre.

If those numbers hold, a farmer planting 3,000 acres stands to lose over $250,000 this season alone. Maupin warns that many operations simply won't survive another year in the red. Even larger producers with more equity are approaching a financial cliff. "The crop will not cash flow," he says. Farmers may need to mortgage land, homes, or equipment to access operational loans.

As bleak as soybean economics are, corn, cotton, and wheat are expected to post even higher per-acre losses. Total net losses across Tennessee's four primary row crops could surpass $360 million in 2025, making it one of the most financially damaging years in recent memory for the state's ag sector.

Farmers like Alan Meadows in Lauderdale County are feeling the pressure firsthand. His fifth-generation farm was hit hard by spring flooding and summer drought. "We just want a free, fair and open market where we can sell our goods competitively," he said. "We produce a superior product, and we need access to the markets."

The American Soybean Association has issued a formal request to President Trump to resolve trade disputes and re-secure Chinese soybean purchases. ASA President Caleb Ragland emphasized that U.S. soybean growers cannot withstand another prolonged standoff with their largest customer, recalling the $9.4 billion in nationwide losses from the 2018 trade war. In 2018, the University of Tennessee estimated nearly $40 million in economic losses for the state's soybean sector, even after federal mitigation payments were applied.

Maupin agrees that even if a trade breakthrough comes, it may be too late to save 2025. With harvest underway and bills due, many farmers are out of options. Decision-making for the 2026 planting season typically happens by December. Without financial recovery or external support, access to credit may dry up entirely, putting the next season in jeopardy.

A potential bright spot lies in biofuels, which could boost domestic soybean demand. The recent budget reconciliation package included incentives for biofuel production, and some states are advancing clean fuel standards. Tennessee farmers are working with markets in California and Washington that are leading the push for biofuel adoption. Still, Maupin cautions that national adoption remains uncertain, and timelines for implementation may not align with farmers' urgent financial timelines.

Federal support is critical. The current Farm Bill, extended under the American Relief Act of 2025, expires on September 30. A full reauthorization is needed to rebuild a working ag safety net. Without it, Maupin warns, the sector is left exposed to the whims of markets and weather. The lack of a loterm Farm Bill has delayed investment in rural infrastructure and conservation programs that could support climate resilience and production stability.

Beyond the economics, he highlights the psychological toll this crisis is taking. Farmers operate with tight margins, long hours, and significant financial risk. For many, the farm is not just a business-it's a legacy. "They've done everything right. They've put in a good crop. But they can't control the rain. They can't control D.C."

Maupin also emphasized the generational divide in how farms are weathering the crisis. Older farmers may have built equity over decades, giving them a buffer, but younger farmers are dangerously exposed. Without equity, they're unable to secure financing or survive multiple unprofitable seasons. Many may be forced to exit farming altogether, which would have loterm implications for the state's ag labor force and rural economies.

As policymakers in Washington debate the next version of the Farm Bill, Tennessee soybean producers are pleading for more than short-term aid. They're asking for structural solutions that ensure future viability: trade certainty, inflation control, fair market access, and meaningful climate and conservation support. Without those tools, Tennessee's top cash crop could see a steep and lasting decline.