U.S. Drought Deepens, Threatening Corn & Soybean Yields as WASDE Forecast Adjusts Production
Severe drought is gripping key U.S. farming regions, threatening corn and soybean yields. Despite record acreage, dry soils and heat stress are reducing productivity, forcing USDA to revise its projections.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows a worsening situation across major agricultural zones, with moderate to severe drought expanding through the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and parts of the Southeast and Northeast. Farmers in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio are reporting declining pasture conditions, low pond levels, and visible crop stress, particularly in soybeans and late-planted corn.
Map illustrating U.S. Drought Monitor data from September 9, 2025, showing different levels of drought severity across affected regions.
According to the September WASDE report, the USDA projects record corn acreage but has lowered yield estimates to 186.7 bushels per acre, down from August's 188.8. For soybeans, yield expectations are at 53.5 bushels per acre, reflecting the toll of dry weather and high temperatures during crucial growth phases.
In states like southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, corn yields are down 30-50 bushels per acre compared to last year. "Corn planted in late June pollinated poorly due to the heat," says Phil Krieg of Syngenta. "Dry conditions during grain fill took away even more bushels."
U.S. Drought Monitor map of the Midwest.
Meanwhile, alfalfa growers won't get a fourth cutting this season due to the prolonged dryness. Trees are dropping leaves early, and soybean pods are thin and underdeveloped.
While parts of Kentucky and Tennessee saw temporary relief from rainfall, much of the Midwest and High Plains continue to suffer. In Nebraska, the dry August and cooler early September temperatures are creating mixed expectations-decent, but not record-breaking yields.
The impact of this drought could be significant across the U.S. agricultural supply chain. Input costs remain high, and yield losses may pressure farm margins, making crop insurance and risk management strategies more critical than ever. Precision agriculture tools, drought-resistant seeds, and conservation practices may help offset losses, but the timing and spread of moisture remain key.
Despite an overall increase in acreage, reduced yields per acre threaten total production, especially in the most affected areas. As farmers and policymakers assess the evolving risks, attention will turn to commodity prices, federal drought relief programs, and how this stress test may influence the 2025 farm bill and future agriculture policy.