U.S. agricultural productivity growth has slowed dramatically, with recent years seeing negative annual gains, a stark contrast to the 2%+ growth of the 1980s. According to the 2025 Global Agricultural Productivity Report, released by Virginia Tech, this slowdown jeopardizes the global food system's ability to meet demand by 2050 without expanding agriculture's environmental footprint.

Researchers warn that productivity growth of just 0.76% per year is far too low. The revised minimum needed? 2% annually, up from a previous 1.73%. Without a course correction, U.S. agriculture could fall behind in feeding a world population expected to top 9 billion by mid-century.

Behind the slowdown, experts point to a "valley of death" between agricultural R&D and on-farm adoption. A lack of public investment, combined with technology transfer failures and slow uptake of innovations, is eroding progress.

Virginia Tech's Tom Thomas said bluntly: "We will fall far below the growth needed to sustainably supply our needs unless we change course."

Farmer voices echoed this warning. Iowa grower Benjamin Reinsche pointed to industry consolidation, citing only three major germplasm companies and four dominant fertilizer producers. He argued this market concentration disincentivizes innovation, allowing companies to focus on existing profits instead of breakthrough solutions.

"Tariffs protect domestic fertilizer giants," he added, "but they also dull the incentive to innovate."

Input giants pushed back. John Deere spends over $2 billion annually on R&D, while Bayer Crop Science spends around $2.4 billion. Yet even the best tech struggles to gain traction. Variable-rate application systems, for example, have been around for decades - but less than half of U.S. farmers use them.

"Farmers are in a tough spot," said Deere's Kanlaya Barr. "Even low-hanging fruit can be hard to reach without support."

Economic pressure only worsens the picture. "Innovation is expensive," warned Gabriele Massimo Onorato of International Farming. "Many farmers are just trying to survive. They're not ready to invest in new tools."

The report concludes that U.S. agriculture needs coordinated action to escape this stall. That means renewed investment in public research, stronger extension services, and policy incentives to de-risk adoption.

Without this, the productivity gap will grow, threatening both U.S. competitiveness and global food security.