The 2025 ag policy landscape is being redefined by a confluence of high-stakes developments: record-breaking corn yields, renewed trade disputes, and the evolving health policy agenda under the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiative.

The USDA forecasts a massive 16.7 billion bushel corn harvest, driven by record 188.8 bushels per acre yields and expanded acreage. This surge, while beneficial to grain supply chains and livestock feeders, has pushed projected corn prices down to $3.90 per bushel, triggering expectations of significant commodity program payments to farmers under federal support programs.

However, the bounty arrives amid growing geopolitical and trade instability. The absence of Chinese soybean purchases, even during peak U.S. export season, signals escalating trade frictions. China has turned to South American suppliers, reportedly purchasing 6.5 million metric tons from Brazil, raising alarms among U.S. exporters.

Simultaneously, President Trump's August 1 tariff deadline led to heightened trade tensions, with dozens of U.S. partners now facing increased tariffs. Industry leaders warn of potential price hikes in fresh produce, especially during off-season months when imports are essential. Fresh fruit prices could rise as much as 5%, surpassing the overall grocery inflation rate of 2.6%, according to industry estimates.

At the policy level, the delayed release of the second MAHA Commission report continues to stir debate. Cathy Burns, CEO of the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA), advocates for structural reforms that make produce a healthcare benefit, including coverage under Medicare, Medicaid, and VA systems. IFPA also calls for expanded fruit and vegetable programs in all public schools, and SNAP incentives to drive healthier food purchases.

Burns also warned that rising input costs and labor challenges threaten the domestic supply of fresh produce. "Fifty percent of produce costs are labor, and without immigration reform-especially expanding **H-2A visas beyond seasonal labor-American farms will continue to disappear," she said. Imports now account for 60% of U.S. fruit and 38% of vegetables, a jump of 10 to 18 points since 2007.

On the trade front, USMCA tensions persist, particularly around Canada's dairy quota management, which industry leaders say violates the spirit of the agreement. Becky Rasdall Vargas of the International Dairy Foods Association stressed that U.S. dairy exporters need better enforcement of existing trade terms and greater protections in upcoming negotiations.

Meanwhile, new port fees on foreign-built ships, intended to support U.S. shipbuilding, may backfire by raising container costs for U.S. ag exports-particularly dairy. Calls are growing for ag exemptions or strategic discounts to keep exports competitive.

Economists like Dan Basse warn that while farmers may benefit from cheap feed in the short term, the lack of formalized trade agreements and China's retreat from U.S. markets could undercut export-dependent sectors. "China's no-show is the big story. If they're using soybean purchases as leverage, we'll feel it this fall," he said.

In sum, 2025 is a pivotal year for U.S. agriculture. High yields and low prices promise immediate relief for some, but the lack of export certainty, rising input costs, and shifting regulatoryworks present loterm challenges for producers, especially those in row crops, dairy, and specialty produce.