As U.S.-China tensions reignite under President Donald Trump's second term, American beef exports are bearing the brunt. Since March 2025, when Beijing allowed U.S. meat import permits to lapse, American shipments to China have collapsed, falling from an average of $120 million a month to under $10 million by August.

At the same time, Australia has surged ahead, funneling more than $221 million in monthly beef exports to China, up from $140 million in prior years. In just five months, from April through August, U.S. producers lost an estimated $388 million in potential sales-most of which Australia captured, gaining over $313 million in new export value.

While drought has already reduced the U.S. cattle herd and driven domestic prices higher, the speed and severity of this trade shift are unprecedented. Analysts point to Trump's escalating trade war and the expiration of plant certifications as primary causes of the market collapse.

"The beef impasse with China has very little to do with beef," said Joe Schuele, spokesperson for the U.S. Meat Export Federation. "It's entangled in broader U.S.-China tensions. If we can resolve those, beef access could follow."

During Trump's first term, a 2020 trade deal sparked a boom in U.S. beef exports to China. But this reversal shows just how vulnerable those gains were. Premium cuts like chuck rolls, highly valued in China but less so domestically, once provided critical value to U.S. processors. That market is now lost.

Australia's competitive edge isn't only political. Record-high production, favorable exchange rates, and growing feedlot capacity have allowed it to supply grain-fed beef comparable to U.S. cuts, but at significantly lower prices. Australian exports are so strong that the country is now also shipping record amounts of beef to the U.S. market itself.

"The U.S. isn't really in a position to be competitive," said Matt Dalgleish, a livestock analyst with Australian firm Episode 3. "Australia has taken over China's grain-fed segment, and it's holding up cattle prices here."

Adding further pressure, Brazil-China's largest overall beef supplier-has also boosted exports. However, analysts say Australia is the clear winner in replacing U.S. market share in the high-end segment.

Still, uncertainty looms. China has launched a domestic investigation into beef import volumes, citing a supply glut. The review could result in new import curbs, affecting all suppliers. A decision is expected by November 26.

For now, U.S. producers face a sobering reality: without resolution to the tariff standoff, regaining lost ground in China will take years, even with a new trade agreement.