A looming "funding cliff" threatens to derail the U.S. farm economy in the next two years as temporary government support packages expire and commodity prices remain flat, according to a new forecast from the University of Missouri's Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).

Unless additional support is authorized, net farm income is projected to fall from a 2025 peak of nearly $177 billion to under $140 billion by 2027, despite an expanded federal safety net under the One Big Beautiful Bill passed earlier this year. The warning comes as the Trump administration readies a $12-$13 billion "bridge" package using USDA's Commodity Credit Corporation authority, with a second round potentially funded by tariff revenues.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says the aid is designed to "get farmers from the Biden years to the new Trump era." But experts caution the approach is unsustainable unless markets rebound or Congress acts again.

"For sure, if we get a trade deal that results in higher commodity prices, that can be a different world," said FAPRI Director Pat Westhoff, noting the forecast assumes trade relations with China normalize but prices stay sluggish through 2031.

Under current law, total government payments are expected to fall from $53 billion in FY25 to just $32 billion by FY27, even with a massive increase in Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments due to program changes in the new farm bill. The expanded safety net adds 30 million acres and significantly raises payout potential, with PLC payments jumping from $700 million in FY25 to $9.7 billion in FY27.

Still, that won't offset the end of special aid packages tied to trade disputes and climate disasters. Adjusted for inflation, the projected FY27 government payments remain slightly above pre-trade war levels but far below recent years.

"It is not sustainable to be dependent on government payments," said Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, who criticized the trade disruption with China and the policy unpredictability. "This is a situation of the government picking winners and losers."

The uncertainty comes amid growing unease among producers about the direction of U.S. trade policy. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Barometer shows slipping confidence in Trump's loterm trade strategy: support dropped from 63% in June to 51% in September, even before Trump announced new 100% tariffs on China in retaliation for rare earth export restrictions.

Still, farm-state Republicans are holding the line in support of Trump's agenda. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), who chairs the Senate Ag Appropriations Subcommittee, said the payments are more than relief-they're leverage.

"It's not just a bridge," Hoeven said. "It's a message to China that retaliation against U.S. farmers won't work."

Other GOP lawmakers echoed his sentiment. Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) warned that failing to step in would be unconscionable. "If we don't help farmers now, shame on us."

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) pointed to the sharp drop in Chinese purchases of soybeans and corn as a red flag. "We've got to have other alternatives," he said, suggesting year-round E15 ethanol sales as a cost-free boost for corn growers.

While producers await outcomes from a planned Trump-Xi summit, the clock is ticking. With input costs still climbing and export channels uncertain, the ag sector's future may hinge on what happens in the next few months-either in trade talks or on Capitol Hill.