Sunny weather greeted visitors at the Farm Progress Show in Illinois, but amid the warmth and excitement, a cold reality hung over the fields. Farmers are reining in spending as they face a perfect storm of low commodity prices, rising input costs, and stalled trade-conditions that could imperil the rural economy.

Subdued mood at the show
Growers like Scott Metzger-who farms soybeans, corn, and wheat across 3,000 acres in central Ohio-report being stuck in a holding pattern. Though supplies seem ample, the price outlook is "pretty nasty," he said, driving farmers to keep older tractors and combines in service longer instead of investing in new high-tech machinery.

Trade tensions deepen uncertainty
One major dampener: China, once the largest importer of U.S. soybeans, has not contracted a single cargo from this year's harvest, which begins next month. The fallout from the ongoing trade war has left the American export outlook frigid.

Gerrit Marx, CEO of CNH Industrial, emphasized the unsettled nature of the U.S. agricultural market: "The fields will all be green. The question is: What grows? And for what purpose? And at what price?" Machinery makers including Corteva and Nutrien have scaled back presence-or skipped the show altogether-highlighting the sector's fragility.

Historic output, shrinking outlets
The U.S. Department of Agriculture anticipates a record corn crop this fall and historically high yields for soybeans, despite planting declines. The result: massive surpluses at a time when tariff-related constraints undermine export demand. Meanwhile, fertilizer and steel tariffs are pushing up input costs, further squeezing margins.

Both the American Soybean Association and National Corn Growers Association are warning of a crisis. The former says growers are perched on a "trade and financial precipice," while the latter points to deteriorating credit conditions and rising bankruptcies-particularly flagged in the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Q2 report.

Technology on display, but investment on hold
Leading manufacturers-CNH, Deere & Co., AGCO-showcased advanced machinery: Internet-connected tractors, climate-controlled cabins, precision-planting systems. Yet, many growers, like Metzger, are postponing upgrades. For now, basic infrastructure like drainage tile gets priority.

John Deere is feeling the pinch: layoffs at its Iowa and Illinois plants and delayed hiring punctuate industry pauses, even as the company pledges nearly $20 billion in U.S. manufacturing investment over the next decade.

Looking ahead: adaptation and policy relief
Farm leaders see this moment as an inflection point. Marx characterizes the current downturn as a "trough" in the farm-machinery cycle-a painful but temporary valley. Some growers manage marginal upgrades like new tires or parts, according to Farm Progress executive Matt Jungmann: "The farmers know these cycles. There's still stuff that has to be done."

Policymakers provided some relief: expanded biofuel blending mandates and improvements to crop insurance under the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (a Trump-era initiative) offer some buffer. Still, AGCO CEO Eric Hansotia underscored the pressing need for a trade settlement with China: "We have a lot of crops this year... we need a deal with China. If and when we can get that, that would be a big unlock for the market."