U.S. soybean exporters are missing out on billions of dollars in sales this fall, as stalled trade talks leave China firmly in South America's court during the U.S.'s prime export season. As of September 2025, Chinese importers have booked just 7.4 million metric tons of mainly South American soybeans for October-meeting 95% of their estimated demand-and 1 million tons for November, or about 15% of expected imports.

That stands in stark contrast to this time last year, when Chinese buyers had reserved 12 to 13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the September-November window. Typically, the U.S. sells most of its soybeans to China between September and January-before Brazil's harvest floods the market-but this year, no U.S. cargoes have been booked for the new crop cycle.

Although U.S. beans trade 80 to 90 cents per bushel cheaper than Brazil's for fall shipments, China's 23% tariff effectively erases that advantage-adding over $2 per bushel in cost. As a result, analysts warn that if China stays out of the U.S. market through mid-November, lost exports could total 14 to 16 million tons-a major blow for the U.S. ag sector.

USDA export forecasts are already being reevaluated. The department may lower its projected soybean exports for the 2025/26 marketing year, which currently sits around 46.4 million tons, down from about 51 million tons a year earlier. Investment in co-op infrastructure, crop insurance planning, and farm bill relief could be in sharper focus as farmers navigate the fallout.

Despite the bleak outlook, opportunities remain. China has not completely shut off U.S. supply, and demand may emerge for November through January delivery if trade negotiations yield a breakthrough. Johnny Xiang of AgRadar Consulting notes that U.S. soy remains attractively priced for non-Chinese markets and could gain ground should Brazilian prices remain elevated.

Processors in China are already feeling the pinch. Soybean crush margins in Rizhao-a key hub-have turned negative in recent weeks, highlighting how higher Brazilian prices are squeezing profitability at Chinese mills.

Beyond Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay are expanding their exports, with up to a projected 10 million metric tons heading to China during the 2025/26 marketing year-a new record expected for Latin American supplies.

For U.S. ag professionals, the implications are urgent:

Commodity prices: Declining demand from China may keep Chicago futures near multi-year lows, while heightened reliance on other buyers may reshape price dynamics.

Supply chain & co-ops: Co-ops must optimize logistics and market diversification strategies as traditional bulk export channels dwindle.

Input costs & risk management: With revenue under pressure, reliance on crop insurance, strategic cost control and farm bill support becomes all the more critical.

Policy engagement: The farming sector may press Washington to seek durable trade agreements or targeted subsidies to mitigate the loss of China-bound demand.

In summary, as China pivots away from U.S. soybeans this fall, U.S. farmers face a narrowing sales window and an increasingly uncertain trade environment. Without reforms or a breakthrough deal, the consequences for crop incomes, co-op operations, and supply chain strategies will reverberate well into 2026.