U.S. grain markets showed renewed strength overnight as futures for wheat and corn rose amid signs of strong global demand. Technical buying helped drive wheat prices higher after short-sellers moved to cover positions, spurred by market expectations that prices may have bottomed out. According to the USDA, international buyers have already committed to purchasing 11 million metric tons of U.S. wheat since the start of the marketing year on June 1-a 24% increase over last year's pace.

Corn also gained modestly on fresh demand signals. The USDA confirmed several large purchases: 100,000 metric tons by Colombia, 125,741 tons by Mexico, and an additional 124,000 tons by an undisclosed buyer-all for the 2025-2026 marketing year beginning September 1. In soybeans, exporters reported that Mexico purchased 228,606 metric tons, a signal that demand remains stable for U.S. oilseeds ahead of the fall harvest window.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat for September delivery climbed 5 1/4¢ to $5.33 1/2 per bushel, and Kansas City wheat rose 3 1/4¢ to $5.26 1/2. Corn futures for December delivery added 1¢ to $4.05, while soybean futures dipped 1/2¢ to $10.35 1/2. Soymeal and soybean oil posted mixed moves, reflecting volatility in processing margins and export demand.

In the energy complex, ethanol production fell to 1.072 million barrels per day, marking its lowest level since May. The drop comes amid broader seasonal slowdowns and potential policy shifts. Production in the Midwest slipped to 1.018 million barrels per day, while the Gulf Coast and other regions posted modest declines. The East Coast was the only area to maintain steady output, holding at 12,000 barrels per day for the second consecutive week.

Ethanol inventories ticked up slightly to 22.688 million barrels, though the market remains watchful of pending federal decisions. According to reports, the Trump administration may soon act on pending refinery exemptions, which could reshape the compliance burden under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The EPA's proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027 would raise biofuel targets to 24.02 and 24.46 billion RINs, respectively-potentially influencing blending economics and corn demand.

In weather, the National Weather Service is monitoring a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across central South Dakota and west-central Minnesota, with threats of 60 mph winds and hail up to one inch. Soaked soils in the region raise concerns about runoff and localized flooding, especially as more storms are forecast for northern Illinois through Saturday.

As the market turns toward USDA's upcoming export report, producers are cautiously optimistic. Strong global grain purchases offer some cushion against ongoing trade uncertainty and ethanol policy shifts, but weather, input costs, and transportation remain key variables heading into the final stretch of the growing season.