The latest USDA Crop Progress report, released on September 21, shows a steady advance in the corn harvest, now at 11% completion-matching the five-year average-while soybean conditions decline and winter wheat planting lags. These developments point to mixed short-term prospects for U.S. row crops during a crucial point in the growing season.

Across the 18 major corn-producing states, 91% of the crop has reached the dent stage, two percentage points behind the five-year average. Maturity stands at 56%, slightly behind the 59% five-year benchmark. Yet, despite these lags, the corn harvest has progressed evenly, suggesting that farmers are working efficiently where conditions allow. Harvest pace holds firm at 11%, compared to 13% last year at the same time.

Crop condition, however, indicates some softness. Nationwide, 66% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent, a 1-point drop from the previous week. 24% is rated fair, and 10% falls into the poor or very poor categories. While not alarming, this trend raises concerns about yield potential and grain quality, particularly in areas stressed by weather variability.

The soybean picture is less encouraging. 61% of soybeans have reached the dropping leaves stage, just above the five-year average of 60%, signaling readiness for harvest in many fields. But harvest progress is only at 9%, steady with average but indicating that the main push is still ahead. More notably, the condition of the soybean crop has worsened: 61% rated good/excellent, down two points week-over-week, with 27% fair and 12% poor/very poor. This decline adds to concerns about overall productivity, particularly as global buyers watch the U.S. harvest closely.

Meanwhile, planting for the 2026 winter wheat crop has reached 20%, which is three points below the five-year average. Emergence sits at 4%, consistent with historical norms, but any continued delays in planting could compress development before winter dormancy sets in. In contrast, spring wheat harvest is essentially complete, with 96% of the crop harvested across six states, in line with typical progress.

The implications of these developments are wide-ranging. With commodity markets sensitive to yield expectations, the drop in soybean condition and the lag in winter wheat planting may impact price direction in the short term. Additionally, input costs remain elevated, and any yield reductions could tighten producer margins. Crop insurance participation and marketing strategies will become increasingly relevant as harvest intensifies.

This report lands during a volatile period for global agricultural trade. China's slowdown in U.S. soybean purchases and Argentina's projected export surge for 2025/26 could reshape price dynamics and export opportunities. U.S. growers may face headwinds from both weather and market competition, reinforcing the need for strategic planning.

Despite these uncertainties, the corn harvest's stable progress offers a measure of confidence. However, attention will remain sharply focused on how the soybean crop finishes and whether winter wheat planting can recover lost momentum.

In the coming weeks, regional variability, precipitation, and early frost risks will shape the final chapter of the 2025 crop year. U.S. agriculture professionals should monitor these shifts closely, as the margin between average and underperforming seasons narrows.