In its highly anticipated September 2025 WASDE report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) made several market-moving revisions to the nation's crop outlook, adjusting projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat that could affect everything from commodity prices and export volumes to input costs and insurance planning for farmers across the country.

2025/2026 Corn Production

Sources: September 2025 USDA WASDE Report

The standout adjustment was the upward revision to 2025/2026 corn production, despite a month-over-month decline in yield from 188.8 to 186.7 bushels per acre. This yield figure, although still above the average trade expectation of 186, was offset by increased acreage. Planted area rose to 98.7 million acres, the highest since 1936, while harvested acres climbed to 90 million, the largest since 1933. As a result, total corn production is now projected at 16.81 billion bushels, up from 16.74 billion in August and far exceeding the trade forecast of 16.5 billion.

Soybean Production:

Sources: September 2025 USDA WASDE Report

These figures reflect a strategic USDA balancing act: acknowledging lower per-acre output due to disease and weather stress-especially the spread of southern rust in southern growing regions-while recognizing broader acreage commitments that more than compensate for those losses. Analysts believe this acreage shift will be a major talking point in the weeks ahead, especially as real-time harvest results begin to surface.

2025/2026 U.S. Ending Stocks Estimates (Million/Billion Bushels)

Sources: September 2025 USDA WASDE Report.M = million, B = billion

On the soybean side, the USDA made similar adjustments. Though the yield estimate was trimmed slightly to 53.5 bushels per acre, the increase in harvested acreage pushed total production up to 4.3 billion bushels. The department raised its forecast for soybean crush by 15 million bushels, citing stronger demand for soybean meal exports, but reduced soybean export estimates by 20 million bushels due to increased global competition, particularly from Russia, Canada, and Argentina.

2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks Estimates (Million/Billion Bushels)

Sources: August 2025 USDA WASDE Report, September 2025 USDA WASDE Report, M = million, B = billion

Perhaps the most surprising shift was the upward revision in soybean ending stocks, now set at 300 million bushels, 10 million higher than last month and contrary to widespread trade expectations for a decline. This divergence reflects ongoing export headwinds, slower shipping pace, and a global market that's becoming increasingly competitive.

2025/2026 Global Ending Stocks Estimates (Million Metric Tons)

Sources: September 2025 USDA WASDE Report

Wheat, too, saw notable changes. Although total supplies and domestic use remained unchanged, the USDA increased its export projection by 25 million bushels, primarily on the strength of hard red winter wheat sales. As a result, 2025/2026 wheat ending stocks are now estimated at 844 million bushels, down 25 million from the August forecast and slightly below last year's level.

2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks Estimates (Million Metric Tons)

August 2025 USDA WASDE Report, September 2025 USDA WASDE Report,

 Globally, the USDA made downward adjustments to 2025/2026 corn and soybean ending stocks, bucking trade expectations for increases. Global wheat stocks, however, were marked higher. For the 2024/2025 marketing year, the USDA revised U.S. corn ending stocks upward and held soybean stocks steady. Global corn stocks for the same period were raised slightly, while soybean and wheat stocks were lowered, countering prior expectations.

In commentary following the release, market analysts described the report as mostly neutral with a few surprises. Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor at Total Farm Marketing, emphasized the potential impact of southern rust on final corn yield numbers. "Based on early harvest results, it seems quite likely that the USDA will need to further lower yield potential in October. This must be monitored with the utmost caution and due diligence, as significantly lower yields would dramatically adjust the global balance sheet for corn," Blohm warned.

She also noted that the USDA made a reasonable decision in cutting soybean export expectations given recent international competition. Meanwhile, Bob Linneman of Kluis Commodity Advisors said the acreage increase in corn came as a surprise to many in the trade. "That 1.3 million acre jump in harvested corn acres will likely be a hot topic over the weekend," he said, adding that both corn and soybean prices could find support and potentially test resistance levels in the weeks ahead.

From a policy and operations standpoint, these updated figures carry weight across several areas. For farm cooperatives and ag retailers, the higher production numbers may influence grain handling logistics and local basis levels. Crop insurance providers will closely monitor actual harvest outcomes as yield uncertainty remains elevated. Exporters and traders must now recalibrate their strategies in light of evolving U.S. competitiveness and shifting global supply dynamics.

Ultimately, while the September WASDE brought few blockbuster surprises, it reinforced key trends shaping the 2025 crop year: resilient U.S. acreage, evolving weather and disease risks, and the intensifying race for global market share.