USDA's $10B Taiwan Deal Raises Questions Over Real Growth for U.S. Ag Exports
Taiwan's pledge to buy $10 billion in U.S. agricultural goods wasd by Secretary Rollins as a "game-changer," but trade data suggests it may not reflect new demand.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced Friday that Taiwan will purchase $10 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products over the next four years. The deal includes soybeans, corn, wheat, and beef, and was described on social media as a "game-changer" for American producers.
However, analysts and commodity professionals quickly pointed out that U.S. ag exports to Taiwan are already averaging nearly $3.8 billion annually, which would amount to over $15 billion in four years - well above the new commitment. This raises questions about whether the deal represents new market expansion or simply formalizes existing trade volumes.
When asked for clarification, a USDA spokesperson redirected questions to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), which has not issued a comment.
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins speaks at a Farmers First roundtable hosted in the USDA
This week, a Taiwanese agricultural delegation visited Washington, meeting with lawmakers and signing letters of intent with U.S. commodity groups. The Taiwan Flour Millers Association committed to purchasing approximately 132 million bushels of U.S. wheat between 2026 and 2029 - a deal valued at around $1.3 billion, according to U.S. Wheat Associates (USW). Similar non-binding letters were signed for soybeans and corn.
Despite the publicized agreements, industry officials stress that letters of intent are not binding contracts and do not guarantee increased exports. A USW spokesperson said the deal reflects a continued relationship rather than a significant shift in trade flows.
Inside meetings on Capitol Hill, Taiwanese representatives discussed "planned commercial purchases," but did not confirm whether these exceed past trade levels.
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins speaks at a Farmers First roundtable hosted in the USDA Whitten building.
Critics argue the USDA may be overstating routine trade activity as a major win. Angie Setzer, partner at Consus Ag Consulting, noted that the current administration often promotes status quo agreements as breakthroughs. Nonetheless, she acknowledged that U.S. agriculture is experiencing record-high export demand across several sectors, including wheat, corn, ethanol, and soybean products.
While the USDA promotes the Taiwan deal as a major achievement, the lack of transparency and quantitative clarity leaves many in the ag sector questioning its true significance.