Fourth-generation Iowa farmer April Hemmes says, "If there's all this uncertainty out there, how can we plan? We need a path forward." Unlike the first Trump-era trade war-when rising commodity prices and aid programs provided some buffer-today's farmers are far less insulated.

Soybean values have plunged about 34% over the past four years, and net farm income has declined for three consecutive years-even though it remains above pre-pandemic levels. This fragile backdrop contrasts sharply with the 2018 trade war, when buttressed prices and bailouts helped many farmers absorb shocks.

A Fragile Pause, Not Stability

A temporary truce with China, effective since June, has reduced some tariff rates but only provides partial relief. Meanwhile, tariffs announced in April remain paused until July 9-but could reactivate suddenly. Farmers worry this stopgap may turn into a sudden collapse of market access.

Surveys conducted in mid-April show widespread concern: 44% of farmers expect weaker income in 2025, and 53% fear ongoing supply disruptions-yet, notably, 70% say tariffs might eventually benefit U.S. agriculture. Many point to enduring trade relationships with USMCA partners and the EU as a cushion-at least for now.

Input Costs and Supply Risks

Tariffs have increased the cost of essential farm inputs-fertilizer, crop protection products, and machinery parts-exacerbating already tight margins. Even modest tariff hikes or retaliatory measures could further destabilize commodity markets.

Politics, Policy and Support

While some producers remain hopeful that tariffs will push trading partners back to the negotiating table, historical precedent shows that federal assistance may once again become necessary. During the first Trump-era trade war, over $28 billion in USDA aid offset some losses. But with current budget constraints and falling incomes, the same level of support may not be sustainable.

What's Ahead for U.S. Farmers

Macroeconomic Risk: Analysts warn that broad tariffs could tip the economy into recession, strengthen the dollar, and reduce global demand for U.S. ag exports.

Political Pressure: Lawmakers from agricultural states-especially Republicans-are voicing concern, even as some rural voters continue to back the tariff strategy.

Supply Chain Vulnerability: Retaliation from Canada, Mexico, China, or other partners could target corn, soybeans, pork, beef, dairy, and other U.S. commodities.