Opinion

What does this summer teach us about the future of agriculture?

This summer's heavy rains have flooded fields across many regions, halting harvests and causing major losses for farmers.

Mihails Vilc&
Mihails Vilc&

At the same time, the situation has highlighted other aspects that require attention for the future - such as seed quality, the use of plant protection products, and overall risk management.

Yields have also been damaged by fusarium head blight, white heads, sooty mold, septoria, and other diseases. In many places, triticale and rye are fit only for feed quality, and a similar situation has emerged for wheat.

Although the government has declared a state of emergency until autumn, the question remains: what will this cost us in the future?

At present, conditions vary across Latvia. In the Ventspils region, the situation is still more or less under control, while Madona and Latgale have been hit by severe rains. Where seed quality was already low, this year's weather conditions have only worsened the outcome, resulting in very poor grain quality.

On the other hand, extreme weather has shed light on risks that cheap seed material can bring - problems that might not otherwise have been noticed in "normal" years.

One of the most critical issues is fusarium head blight, caused by several different pathogens. It is one of the most dangerous cereal diseases, most commonly affecting wheat, barley, oats, and rye. The disease typically appears during and after flowering, especially in warm, humid weather. It not only reduces yields and quality but also leads to mycotoxin contamination of grain.

Fusarium is not always easy to spot - when the infection is small, only individual heads may be affected, while the field still looks healthy from a distance. If the pathogen is already present in the seed, using such material only spreads the problem further. Fusarium can also damage the embryo, causing the grain to stop developing and eventually die.

With poor-quality seed, the pathogen is easily introduced into the soil, where it can survive on crop residues for several years. At that point, the problem is much harder to manage, and even fungicide applications may not deliver the expected results. If the infection is already in the soil, spraying fungicides on leaves or ears will not eliminate it.

Another visible problem this year is white heads - ears turning white while the rest of the plant remains green. Grains in these ears are often poorly developed, discolored, or completely empty, directly affecting the next sowing. Weak plants are also more susceptible to sooty mold fungi, which appear late in ripening under wet conditions, covering ears and grain with a black or dark green layer, again lowering quality.

With each subsequent harvest that carries these pathogens forward, the problem spreads, and overall grain quality declines further.

Agriculture is facing a wide range of challenges this year, and they began already in spring with moisture deficit. This was followed by heavy rainfall and high temperatures, which not only stressed soils but also complicated plant protection planning. As a result, problems with powdery mildew and septoria (the second most widespread pathogen) intensified. Septoria is particularly difficult to fight because of its slow development - first symptoms (small, pale green, water-soaked spots) appear only two weeks after infection.

This means the pathogen is already present long before it becomes visible. Stubble-base diseases, together with adverse weather, have also caused extensive lodging. If vascular tissues are damaged up to the first node, the stem can no longer support the ear, which easily bends or breaks under wind and rain.

Farms that did not cut back on plant protection measures are now the winners. Unfortunately, those who reduced fungicide doses to save money have only increased their risks. Saving 10-20 euros can ultimately cost 300-400 euros in lost yield and quality. During grain filling, more than 70% of the dry matter comes from the ear and the flag leaf, which is why their protection is essential.

A shortage of just one critical nutrient (such as nitrogen, phosphorus, or potassium) can lead to yield losses of 20-30% or even more. This year we see many examples of this, with weather conditions amplifying the problem.

In Kurzeme, some farmers have already harvested 50-75% of their crops, but the situation varies widely across regions. While the arrival of the first grain has lifted farmers' mood slightly, in Latgale many fields remain so waterlogged that machinery cannot even enter, harvest has not begun, and grain has already sprouted or lost quality.

Much of the triticale and rye is fit only for feed, and wheat is in a similar situation. Although the government has declared a state of emergency until autumn, we must also consider the long-term costs. The agricultural sector lacks a safety net, which means today's support will likely be taken from other sectors.

To avoid similar crises in the future, the focus must be on higher-quality seed material, proper plant protection, and diversification within farms. When all eggs are placed in one basket, one bad harvest year can threaten the very survival of a farm.

This year's experience makes it clear: there are no small details in agriculture. Every step - from seed quality to timely plant protection - determines harvest results and farm viability. While we cannot control the weather, we can reduce risks with smart use of technology, and diversified farming. Only then can we ensure stability in the future and avoid a situation where a single bad season endangers an entire farm.